Foldable iPhone Is Behind Schedule and May Stay Scarce Into 2027, Kuo Says
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects an announcement in fall 2026 but warns that yield and ramp problems could keep stock tight through the year.
Key takeaways
- Kuo says development is behind earlier expectations but still expects an announcement in the second half of 2026.
- He warns smooth shipments may not arrive until 2027 and shortages could last to at least the end of 2026.
- Reports cite a book-style design with a 7.8-inch inner screen, an outer display of roughly 5.3 to 5.5 inches, and a price of $2,000 to $2,500.
Apple's first foldable iPhone is still expected to be announced in the second half of 2026, but analyst Ming-Chi Kuo now says it will be hard to buy. In a December 18 research note he argues that production yields and ramp-up problems mean "smooth shipments may not occur until 2027."
What Kuo is saying
Kuo's note, summarised by MacRumors, makes three points. First, development of the foldable is behind earlier expectations. Second, the cause is early-stage yield and mass-production ramp challenges, rather than a lack of demand. Third, with limited supply and strong expected demand, shortages could last until at least the end of 2026, with normal availability not arriving until 2027.
He also reads the absence of supply-chain chatter as a warning sign. Foxconn had been expected to begin limited production before the end of 2025, but the lack of reports suggests the device may still be in design validation, the stage at which manufacturing consistency problems tend to surface. Mizuho Securities has previously warned that the launch could slip into 2027 if Apple takes longer to finalise elements such as the hinge mechanism, so there is a spread of views among analysts on how late it might run.
None of this is confirmed by Apple, which does not comment on unreleased products. It is analyst reporting and should be read as such.
What the device is expected to be
Reports consistently describe a book-style foldable rather than a clamshell. Kuo has cited a roughly 7.8-inch inner display and a smaller outer screen, with reports giving the outer display as about 5.3 to 5.5 inches. The article behind the December note also mentions liquid-metal hinges meant to produce a nearly crease-free inner screen and an expected price between $2,000 and $2,500, which would make it Apple's most expensive iPhone. Earlier coverage said Samsung Display would supply the OLED panels, and that a second-generation foldable could follow in the second half of 2027.
Volume forecasts have moved around. In September 2025 Kuo projected 8 to 10 million foldable iPhones in 2026 and up to 25 million in 2027, according to MacRumors. The December note does not restate unit numbers, but the logic of a tight ramp points to the lower end of the 2026 range at best. Those are modest figures against Apple's overall iPhone volume, which analysts at IDC had forecast at more than 247 million units for 2025, so the foldable will be a small slice of the iPhone business even if it succeeds.
Why it matters
Apple's pace on new form factors is deliberate, and a foldable is a bigger bet than most. If supply is constrained, the first year will be a showcase for loyal early adopters rather than a mass-market shift. That affects rivals too. Samsung and Google have spent years refining foldables, with Google's Pixel 10 Pro Fold selling at $1,799, and an Apple device at $2,000 or more would push the top of the foldable price range higher still.
For investors, the interesting question is whether a small, scarce device can move Apple's numbers. Even at 8 to 10 million units, at roughly $2,000 each the foldable would represent a meaningful chunk of revenue, but it would also divert premium demand away from Pro models. Constrained supply, paradoxically, keeps that cannibalisation modest.
How analysts are lining up
Kuo's view is more cautious than his earlier ones. Through 2025 he said the foldable would debut in the iPhone 18 generation, and in May he said a second-generation model would follow in the second half of 2027. The December note keeps the 2026 announcement but pushes the point at which most people can actually buy one toward 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has also said the device is on track for 2026 and described it as a major overhaul of the iPhone, so the consensus is that the product exists and is close, not that it is imminent for everyone.
The difference between an announcement and availability is the key point for buyers. Apple has often announced products in the autumn that reach stores weeks later, and for a product with new hinges and new panels, a staggered rollout would not be unusual. A pre-order queue stretching for months is plausible if the yield issues Kuo describes persist.
What to watch
- Reports on whether Foxconn has begun limited production, which Kuo says is a key signal.
- Any slip in the announcement window from fall 2026 toward 2027.
- Hinge and panel supplier news, including Samsung Display's yields.
- Pricing leaks from Apple's supply chain as the launch nears.
Sources
- Kuo: iPhone Fold production challenges could limit supply next year — MacRumors
- Foldable iPhone coming in 2026, foldable iPad to follow in 2028 — MacRumors
- Kuo: Apple's first foldable iPhone to feature book-style design, sell for over $2,000 — MacRumors
- Apple's second foldable iPhone set for 2027 launch, claims Kuo — MacRumors
